It may have taken six years, but Tarik Skubal has finally found his money pitch. And the Guardians were feeling it in Game 1 of the divisional round on Tuesday.
These Guardians know Skubal well. In addition to facing him three other times this season, they faced him just days ago in a crucial Tigers loss, one that helped cement Cleveland’s huge comeback to secure the AL Central title that, at one point, Detroit had a 15.5-game lead on Cleveland.
So, it was reasonable to wonder whether Skubal’s pitching would be effective Game 1, or whether the Guardians would have him figured out.
"It means a lot to take the ball in Game 1," Skubal said to a scrum after the game. "To have the trust of our whole organization, teammates, coaching staff, it means a lot."
Ultimately, he rose to the challenge of that honor, helping secure Detroit's 2–1 win. Skubal held Cleveland to a single earned run in 7.2 innings of work with a career-high 14 strikeouts. Propelled by his pitch, Skubal brought a strong body of work.
Skubal’s changeup has emerged gradually year over year as a proportion of his pitching profile, with it finally overtaking his four-seam fastball as the most-used pitch he threw in a season in 2025 (31.4% frequency).
Here's a look at just how long this pitch has taken to emerge as his most used and most dominant:
|
Year
|
Changeup Portion
|
Changeup Run Value
|
|
2020
|
16%
|
-1
|
|
2021
|
12%
|
0
|
|
2022
|
15%
|
4
|
|
2023
|
24%
|
9
|
|
2024
|
27%
|
7
|
|
2025
|
31%
|
25
|
So it was only right that on Tuesday, in an important Game 1 victory over the Cleveland Guardians, the majority of his 14 strikeouts came on the changeup, now his best pitch, dialed in over a number of years.
|
Pitch Type
|
Strikeouts
|
|
Changeup
|
7
|
|
Fastball
|
4
|
|
Sinker
|
2
|
|
Curveball
|
1
|
Seven—of half of his total strikeouts—came on the changeup. Twelve out of the 23 times he threw the pitch resulted in a swinging strike, with it being hit in play just three times.
"I was just kind of worried about executing each pitch and trying to do my best to live pitch-by-pitch… getting ahead and getting guys into leverage," Skubal said of his performance after the game.
The changeup went for a hit twice in the game: One was a soft ground ball by Angel Martinez, the other a line drive hit 105.5 MPH off the bat by Kyle Manzardo. Overall, the Guardians managed a single quality hit on the pitch all afternoon.
The changeup is, of course, a pitch that seldom gets the job done on its own. As a slower pitch, it’s one that catches hitters off guard after the pitcher has shown them something faster in the repertoire.
Skubal most frequently used the slider as his immediate setup pitch (the pitch right before the strikeout pitch) in Game 1. The slider was his strikeout pitch, but it served a clear purpose, forcing Guardians batters into seven foul tips and overtraining them to the ever-so-slight speed difference from the changeup.
|
Pitch Type
|
Pitch Count in Game 1
|
Average MPH, Game 1
|
|
Fastball
|
30
|
99.12
|
|
Slider
|
27
|
91.91
|
|
Sinker
|
23
|
98.7
|
|
Changeup
|
23
|
89.42
|
|
Curveball
|
4
|
84.27
|
Skubal strikeout on Tuesday was a swinging strikeout, proving just how well his deception worked as a result of the sequencing, for which catcher Dillon Dingler deserves credit for as well. Neither of the two hits off the changeup came with the slider as the setup pitch.
Asked about the slider usage after the game, Skubal laughed and said, "Is Dingler coming in here? Yeah, I don't know, he calls it and I throw it. That's kind of it. That's kind of how all of it goes. There's like two shakes a game and the rest are him calling it, and I just try to throw it."
Notably, his curveball, thrown just four times, was set up by a slider the lone time it baited a Cleveland batter to swing at it, and miss, on Tuesday.
It was a strong afternoon at the office for Skubal, putting the Tigers just a game away from advancing and finally putting the 2025 Guardians in their rearview.